Stablecoin USDe, led by Arthur Hayes, officially launched on February 19th. Currently, the annualized yield for staking is as high as 33.3%, and users can also earn Shard rewards, which may be used for future airdrops. The author believes that the value of Shards is underestimated. How did he make this estimation? This article is sourced from 0xYaro’s tweet and compiled by Foresight News.
(Earlier Update: USDe Annual Interest Rate of 27%! Is Arthur Hayes’ USD Stablecoin a Ponzi Scheme?)
(Background Information: Satoshi’s Dollar is Here! Arthur Hayes’ Stablecoin USDe with Annual Yield of Over 27% and Interaction with Ethena Airdrop Tutorial)
Ethena Labs’ Shards are an undervalued “gold shovel.” It was a wise move for them to change “points” to “Shards,” which is very cool.
I calculated the price of Ethena Shards and feel that it is undervalued. In short, it is recommended to buy YT USDe on Pendle.
Let’s calculate the estimated value of each Shard. First, let’s calculate how many “Shards” Ethena Labs is expected to issue. From February 19th to March 2nd, the activity has lasted for 12 days.
Currently, the total number of Shards is 65.78 billion, and nearly 4 billion Shards will be generated daily in the future. Joo provided an unofficial prediction that the Shards’ inflation rate will decrease by 25% and 50% in the next 2 to 4 Epochs.
Messari predicts that the Ethena Shards activity will end on March 20th, leaving 18 days. If this information is true, we can estimate that the total number of Shards in the market is approximately 138 billion (65.78 billion + 4 billion * 18 days).
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Now let’s calculate the value of a Shard. Taking a conservative approach, Ethena is estimated to be worth 2 billion US dollars, and it plans to airdrop tokens equivalent to 5% of the total supply (about 100 million US dollars). This means that the implied value of each Shard is approximately 0.0007258 US dollars (100 million US dollars / 138 billion Shards).
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Looking from the bottom up, the current market valuation of Ethena Shards is relatively low. Currently, each YT USDe on Pendle is priced at 0.05 US dollars, and each YT USDe can generate 10 Shards per day. After 18 days, each YT USDe can accumulate 180 Shards. In other words, the current market prices 180 Shards at 0.05 US dollars, and the implied value of each Shard is 0.0002778 US dollars (0.05 US dollars / 180 Shards). If you buy YT USDe, it means there is still three times the speculation potential for Shards.
Risks to Consider:
Before fully participating in Ethena Labs’ Shard activity, it is important to consider the following risks:
The above calculations are based on my own reasonable estimates and may not fully match the actual situation.
Airdrops do not guarantee immediate liquidity and may take a long time to profit from.
There are other risks related to the product, smart contracts, etc.
You can now deposit USDT, USDC, DAI, GHO, crvUSD, and mkUSD on the Ethena Labs website in exchange for USDe. You can obtain Shards by providing liquidity, locking, or staking USDe. However, based on the analysis above, I believe that the best way to obtain Shards is to buy YT USDe on Pendle. This way, you can not only earn leverage points 181 times but also receive Ethena’s 10 times Shard rewards.
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