In the past Bitcoin halving cycles, there has often been a significant correction followed by a surge. Many people choose to sell their Bitcoin before the halving and then buy back during the subsequent rise. However, this article suggests that there is no need to sell before the halving and that one can prepare for a massive surge. The article, sourced from DUO NINE⚡YCC and compiled, translated, and written by Shenzhen Tide, discusses the upcoming Bitcoin halving and its potential impact.
Summary:
BTC halving is approaching, and here are 5 major projects to watch out for: Merlin, Stacks, B2, BounceBit.
Rich Dad plans to buy 10 more Bitcoins in April, and the halving will help push BTC to $100,000 in September.
Trends are your friends, and Bitcoin is your best friend in the cryptocurrency gambling game.
With less than a month until the next Bitcoin halving, recent price corrections may be intimidating. Whales understand this game very well and hope that you will sell your tokens during the surge. Don’t fall for it! Hold firm and don’t let them scare you.
As the bull market continues, more people will try to acquire the low-priced tokens you hold. You still have about a year to make money. Don’t sell too early!
The countdown to halving has begun. Everyone is preparing for a massive surge after halving. Those who sell before April 20, 2024, are easily shaken. You should never sell before halving. What you should do is prepare for a huge surge!
During the previous downturn, I bought more altcoins, some of which have risen by more than 50%!
Based on past cycles, Bitcoin has generally risen overall for about a year and a half after halving.
Surprisingly, this cycle, Bitcoin broke the old all-time high before halving for the first time! I have written a lot about this in previous posts. Click here to read, it will help you formulate an exit plan.
However, this puts us in a dilemma…
Where should we start for the upcoming massive surge?
Bitcoin ETF approval in January 2024?
Breaking $69,000 (old all-time high) in early March 2024?
Halving in April 2024?
This is important because each of these assumptions will affect when you should profit and exit the market. What can be certain is that this cycle is different and accelerating!
Take a look at the chart below. Pay attention to how the time between ATH (all-time high) breakthroughs has been shortened. It was 1,176 days, then 1,085 days, and recently 840 days. The latter is the shortest because BTC set a new record shortly after ETF approval, before halving!
Bitcoin always reaches its peak within 10 to 11 months after breaking the old all-time high. Therefore, I tend to set our starting point as breaking $69,000 in March 2024 and calculate 10 months from there. If things remain the same, this would lead Bitcoin to peak between December 2024 and January 2025.
Waiting for a year and a half after halving in April 2024 may not be a wise bet. If this cycle maintains this speed, I expect us to enter a bear market in the summer or fall of 2025. That’s because the price is moving faster, not slower!
The most hopeful prediction is shown in the chart below, using the 2016-2017 surge as a baseline (in red). Once the current price deviates from this baseline, we will know if this cycle is faster or slower. So far, our speed is similar to or faster than before, depending on how the candlestick charts in March and April will close. The exit period on the chart is between October 2024 and March 2025. This is the target using our assumptions mentioned above.
There will be adjustments in the massive surge. Take advantage of these opportunities to readjust your investment portfolio and increase your positions in strong-performing tokens, as I have done in the past two weeks.
I also looked at the data and compared it with the past two bull markets, and the results showed that Bitcoin’s pullbacks in this bull market have averaged a 21% decline.
2016-2017 bull market: -37% average pullback
2020-2021 bull market: -33% average pullback
2023-2024 bull market: 21% pullback so far
If Bitcoin drops by 20%, it is an opportunity to buy immediately, at least for the next few months. By the end of 2024, I won’t take the risk of buying at low prices anymore. Also, note that the magnitude of bear market adjustments in each cycle is shrinking over time:
2018-2019 bear market: 84% pullback
2021-2022 bear market: 77% pullback
2025-2026 bear market: How much will it pull back?
Another way to know if you are profiting at the right time is if Coinbase sets a new record in trading volume. If quarterly trading volume exceeds $150 billion, you are profiting at the right time. The data in the chart below shows that the current trading volume is gradually increasing.
Lastly, don’t be fooled by whales! They will do everything they can to scare you and get you to sell your Bitcoin, whether during the correction or in the next bear market. Never lose confidence in Bitcoin; it has proven everyone wrong in the past 15 years.
Trends are your friends, and Bitcoin is your best friend in the cryptocurrency gambling game.