Facing the upcoming halving, will there be a repetition of the halving trend or a new narrative? The bulls and bears are engaged in fierce competition. This article is sourced from Tide Capital and compiled by ChainCatcher.
Summary:
The strongest in history! Bitmain releases the new mining machine, ANTMINER S21 Pro. How will mining profits be affected after the halving?
Background:
Opinion: Why Holding Bitcoin Firmly is a Good Choice?
Table of Contents:
Bitcoin: About to complete the 4th halving, reducing annual selling pressure by $10 billion
Bitcoin: After the 3 previous halvings, there was a significant increase in price the following year
Bitcoin: Spot ETF receives accelerated funding, helping Bitcoin continue to rise
Inscription: Bitcoin’s native innovation, expected to start the third wave of enthusiasm during the halving
Rune: Protocol expected to go live during the halving, Runestone expected to become a core asset
Meme: Blue-chip NFT mfers launches token, market cap reaches $200 million within 12 hours
At Bitcoin block height #837188, with 20 days left until the fourth halving, Bitcoin reaches the $70,000 mark. There has been a subtle change in market sentiment. Facing the upcoming halving, it is uncertain whether there will be a repetition of the halving trend or a new narrative. The bulls and bears are engaged in fierce competition.
Tide Capital has released the latest research report titled “6 Big Ideas You Need to Know About Bitcoin Halving,” which explains the six most important clues and judgments driving Bitcoin prices. This article includes excerpts from the research report. For the full article, please visit the Tide Capital website to download the complete research report.
Bitcoin will complete the 4th halving on April 18, 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, further reducing Bitcoin’s output and selling pressure.
Before the halving, Bitcoin’s annual output was about 330,000 BTC. Based on a price of $65,000, this would result in over $20 billion in selling pressure. After the halving, Bitcoin’s annual selling pressure will be halved, equivalent to a reduction of $10 billion, effectively alleviating the selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has experienced 3 halvings in its history, which took place in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020. In all three cases, there was a significant increase in price the year after the halving. With less than 30 days remaining until the 4th halving, the market has begun to assess the impact of the halving. Bitcoin has a high probability of continuing its upward trend.
On January 10, BTC spot ETF was approved, leading to billions of dollars of off-exchange funds flowing in, which has helped Bitcoin continue to rise. In previous bull markets, Bitcoin usually experienced multiple pullbacks of over 20%. However, in this bull market, there have been fewer and smaller pullbacks, thanks to a continuous inflow of off-exchange funds.
Taking gold ETF as a reference, after the first gold ETF was launched, gold entered a decade-long bull market, with an increase of over 400%. Compared to gold, Bitcoin offers safer storage, more convenient transactions, and faster transfers, making it a superior store of value. The current market value of gold is $14.5 trillion, while the market value of Bitcoin is only $1.3 trillion, leaving 10 times the room for Bitcoin to grow. The launch of Bitcoin ETF is more favored than the launch of gold ETF back then, with a much faster influx of funds.
In January 2023, Bitcoin developer Casey Rodarmor released the Ordinals protocol, allowing users to embed data in the Bitcoin blockchain and create NFTs and tokenized assets on Bitcoin, opening up new possibilities for the Bitcoin ecosystem. Since its launch, Ordinals has recorded over 60 million engravings.
Rune has experienced two waves of enthusiasm. The first wave started in April 2023 when the leading token ORDI increased from $0.005 to $28, a growth rate of over 5000% in two months. The second wave began in October 2023 when ORDI increased from $3 to $96. OKX and Binance launched Rune trading markets, driving the rise of more Rune assets.
Rune is an original innovation in the Bitcoin ecosystem, bringing more users and developers to the Bitcoin community. Various new applications and gameplay are constantly emerging. When Bitcoin undergoes the next halving, market attention will once again turn to the Bitcoin ecosystem, and Rune will start the third wave of enthusiasm.
The Rune Protocol, proposed by Casey Rodarmor, the founder of Ordinals, is an improved version of the BRC-20 protocol. It aims to provide an efficient, highly compatible, and scalable framework for issuing and managing Bitcoin assets. It is expected to go live during the Bitcoin halving and has become one of the mainstream concepts for halving speculation.
Rune Stone, launched by Leonidas, the founder of Ord.io, a browser for Ordinals, completed its initial distribution by airdropping NFTs to 112,383 Bitcoin addresses and currently has a market value of over $300 million. Rune Stone has become a representative asset of the Rune Protocol, and more projects are starting to airdrop assets to Rune Stone holders. Rune Stone has huge potential for future applications and gameplay. Additionally, after the launch of the Rune Protocol, users holding Rune Stone will be able to convert it into fungible tokens. In summary, Rune Stone has the narrative of “Rune Protocol” + “Airdropped Assets” + “Token issuance expectations” and is expected to become a core asset in the Bitcoin halving trend.
On March 30, sartoshi, the founder of the blue-chip NFT project mfers, released the token mfercoin, stating in the whitepaper that mfercoin is a meme coin with no intrinsic value, profit expectations, or specified use. 80% of the tokens were injected into the liquidity pool, and the remaining 20% were airdropped to the mfers community.
The NFT project mfers went live in 2021 and sparked a PFP frenzy in the crypto community. It is a well-known blue-chip NFT project. After the launch of mfercoin, with the support and promotion from the community, it achieved a market cap of $200 million within 12 hours. In terms of the future of mfercoin, as the mfers community says, 1$mfer = 1$mfer.
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