Bitcoin halving will take place on April 20th. This is the fourth halving in Bitcoin’s history, but it may be the first experience for many investors. This article will summarize the previous halving events of Bitcoin and predict its performance after this halving.
Recalling the past three halving events of Bitcoin
Referring to the previous three halving events, it is predicted that the peak of Bitcoin will surpass $160,000
Bull markets may not always follow the plan
Bitcoin halving will take place in two days (4/20). This is the fourth halving in Bitcoin’s history. Experienced investors in the cryptocurrency market may be familiar with halving events, but for many investors who entered the market after the NFT and meme craze, this may be their first experience. This article will summarize the previous halving events of Bitcoin and predict its performance after this halving.
Before analyzing the data, let’s take a look at the time and price of each Bitcoin halving. Bitcoin halving occurs every four years, and the specific information is as follows:
The first halving occurred on November 28, 2012. After the halving, the block reward was 25 bitcoins, and the price of Bitcoin on the halving day was $12.
The second halving occurred on July 9, 2016. After the halving, the block reward was 12.5 bitcoins, and the price of Bitcoin on the halving day was $650.
The third halving occurred on May 12, 2020. After the halving, the block reward was 6.25 bitcoins, and the price of Bitcoin on the halving day was $8,626.
At the same time, we have compiled the peak prices after each Bitcoin halving, the percentage increase from the halving day to the peak, and the number of days it took from the halving day to the peak:
After the first halving, the peak price of Bitcoin was $1,135, with a 9,358% increase, and it took 371 days from the halving day to the peak.
After the second halving, the peak price of Bitcoin was $19,640, with a 2,921% increase, and it took 525 days from the halving day to the peak.
After the third halving, the peak price of Bitcoin was $69,045, with a 700% increase, and it took 545 days from the halving day to the peak.
From historical records, the percentage increase from the halving day to the peak of Bitcoin ranged from 700% to 9,358%, with an average increase of 4,326%. The number of days ranged from 371 days to 545 days, with an average of 480 days.
If the fourth halving follows the expected trend, based on the average number of days mentioned above, the peak price of Bitcoin after the halving may fall around August 13, 2025.
Judging from the gradual decrease in price increase after the previous three halvings, it is highly probable that the price increase after the fourth halving will not exceed 700% of the previous increase. If we refer to the price increase of the previous three halvings, the peak price of Bitcoin after the fourth halving may reach $162,946.
However, the peak price after the halving may not necessarily reach the expected level, as external factors can also lead to changes in plans, such as the recent Middle East conflict and the suggestion from the Federal Reserve that interest rates will not be lowered in the short term.
In addition, based on the interest rate chart from the Federal Reserve, the current interest rate (5.5%) is the highest since the birth of Bitcoin, far exceeding the interest rates during the previous three halvings (0.25, 0.5, 0.25). Therefore, in the context of high interest rates, the bull market of Bitcoin may be postponed.
Source: TradingView
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