With less than 2 days left until the activation of Bitcoin’s fourth halving, Google Trends data shows that search volume for “Bitcoin halving” has reached its highest level ever. It is expected that search interest this month will be more than double that of the previous Bitcoin halving in 2020.
The current Bitcoin block height is 839,747, and it is less than two days away from reaching the block height of 840,000 for the fourth halving. It is expected to activate on April 20th at around 11:00 am Taiwan time. At that time, the block reward will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
As the fourth halving approaches, Google Trends data shows that search volume for “Bitcoin halving” has reached an all-time high, estimated to reach 100 this month, more than twice the peak of 36 during the previous halving in 2020.
In terms of search interest by country, Nigeria, the Netherlands, Cyprus, Switzerland, and Slovenia are the top 5 countries most interested in Bitcoin halving, with search interest levels of 100, 92, 77, 77, and 77, respectively. As for Taiwan, the search interest for Bitcoin halving is only 3, ranking 65th globally.
Bitcoin has experienced a significant increase since the beginning of this year, reaching a historical high of over $73,600 in March. With Bitcoin’s strong performance, interest in Bitcoin halving has reached record levels. However, after reaching a new high in March, Bitcoin has gradually declined and fell below $60,000 this morning, a decrease of nearly 20% from its peak.
Some market observers have recently been pessimistic about Bitcoin’s future. 10x Research predicts that Bitcoin miners may sell $5 billion worth of Bitcoin after the halving to cope with the increasing mining difficulty and financial needs. This selling pressure may continue for four to six months, causing Bitcoin to consolidate in the coming months.
However, historically, Bitcoin has experienced significant increases after halving:
– After the first halving, Bitcoin reached a peak of $1,135, a 9,358% increase, lasting 371 days from the halving day to the peak.
– After the second halving, Bitcoin reached a peak of $19,640, a 2,921% increase, lasting 525 days from the halving day to the peak.
– After the third halving, Bitcoin reached a peak of $69,045, a 700% increase, lasting 545 days from the halving day to the peak.
Investment research firm Bernstein released a research report predicting that after the fourth halving, with the completion of the adjustment of mining power and the resumption of inflows into Bitcoin spot ETF funds, the bullish trend of Bitcoin will resume. By 2025, Bitcoin is expected to reach a peak of $150,000.
Bernstein analysts pointed out that the halving of mining rewards itself will not cause Bitcoin to rise without new demand. After the halving, miners will receive fewer block rewards, resulting in a decrease in available Bitcoin for sale. However, the potential selling pressure has significantly decreased over time.
According to Bernstein, catalysts on the demand side usually emerge after halving. In the 2020/21 halving cycle, the catalyst was liquidity during the outbreak of the pandemic, as well as companies like Tesla, Square, and MicroStrategy buying Bitcoin. The demand during this halving cycle will be driven by the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF listings and major global asset management companies.