Senior trader Peter Brandt recently stated in his blog post that Bitcoin has reached its peak in the current bull market cycle and predicted that it may drop to over $30,000 or even lower.
Peter Brandt, a senior trader who has published several bestselling finance books and has over 720,000 followers on X, recently expressed in his blog post that Bitcoin has reached its peak in the current bull market cycle and predicted that it may drop to over $30,000 or even lower.
Peter Brandt: A significant Bitcoin drop is a good thing in the long run
Bitcoin has gone through four bull market cycles and is currently in its fifth. According to Peter Brandt’s article, the prediction of a Bitcoin decline is based on the phenomenon of exponential decay, which he observed from the four previous Bitcoin bull market cycles.
Based on data from the past four bull market cycles, Peter Brandt points out that approximately 80% of the growth momentum disappears in each market cycle:
The scale of 2011-2013 is about 20% of the 2009-2011 cycle.
The scale of 2015-2017 is about 20% of the 2011-2013 cycle.
The scale of 2018-2021 is about 20% of the 2015-2017 cycle.
In other words, each successful bull market cycle sees an 80% dissipation of the index energy, indicating that the current bull market cycle will have approximately 4.5 times the index growth (around 440% of the 2018-2021 cycle’s 22 times 20%).
Since the low point of this cycle is $15,473, which means that the current cycle has already reached 4.5 times growth (the current market price is about $72,500). However, this experienced analyst seems hesitant to assert that Bitcoin has reached the peak of the current bull market, especially considering that BTC has just undergone the halving. Therefore, he believes that there is a possibility of about 25% that Bitcoin has already peaked.
If Bitcoin has indeed peaked, Peter Brandt predicts that the price may drop to around $30,000 by the low point of 2021. However, from a technical analysis perspective, such a decline may be the most favorable in the long term. If you want to see examples of this chart structure, you can refer to the gold price chart from August 2020 to March 2024.
This bull market is different
Another important difference between this bull market and previous ones is that the current US interest rate (5.5%) is the highest since the birth of Bitcoin. In comparison, the highest interest rate in the previous three bull markets did not exceed 2.5%. This may bring significant pressure to the market funds.
Currently, according to the Federal Reserve’s dot plot, it may take until after 2026 for the interest rate to drop to 2.5%.
However, what makes this cycle different from previous ones is that the US has passed spot ETF, coupled with the recent halving… What impact will this different time background have on Bitcoin? Let us continue to observe.
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