$6.5 Billion Bitcoin Options Expire on Friday! Over 90% Bullish Bets Placed on BTC Reaching $70,000, Biggest Concern Remains at $65,000

Options worth $6.5 billion will expire on May 31, with nearly 90% of the exercise price set at $70,000 or above. The maximum pain point falls at $65,000, so please be cautious of volatility.
(Prior summary:
Largest scale in history: $15 billion Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire on Friday, beware of volatility.)
(Background:
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin is likely to break new highs in June, and the bull market is expected to continue until then.)
With the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF and the change in presidential candidates’ stance on cryptocurrencies, the cryptocurrency market seems to be gradually warming up. Bitcoin has risen from around $57,000 at the beginning of this month to a high of about $71,000, an increase of 24.6%.
Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating between $68,000 and $70,000, with a temporary report of $68,556, a slight decrease of 0.2% in the past 24 hours. It remains to be seen when it will move in a clear direction.


BTC price trend chart
Bitcoin bulls are too optimistic, betting on $70,000 or more
However, looking at the options data expiring at the end of this month, many investors have more optimistic expectations for Bitcoin’s rebound this month. According to data from the options trading platform Deribit, nearly 90% of the Bitcoin options expiring on May 31 have an exercise price set at $70,000 or above. This indicates that most investors are betting on a significant increase in Bitcoin before the end of May.
Since the current market price of Bitcoin is about $68,500, there is still a gap between the exercise price of these bullish investors and the market price. This means that unless there is a significant surge, these call options are likely to become invalid after expiration, resulting in a loss of investors’ premiums.
Currently, the data of Bitcoin options expiring on May 31 on Deribit are as follows:
A total of $4.693 billion will expire (if other exchanges are included, the total is $6.5 billion), with a call-to-put ratio of 0.6.
The maximum pain point price is $65,000.
The “maximum pain point price” of the options refers to the price at which the buyer’s overall loss is maximized (i.e. the seller’s overall profit is maximized) when the options expire.


BTC options expiring on the 31st
If Bitcoin breaks through $70,000, the Bitcoin bulls will have a potential profit of $270 million.
Further analysis shows that on May 31, if the price of Bitcoin remains around $67,800, the situation in the options market is as follows:
The total value of open call contracts will reach approximately $135 million.
The total value of open put contracts at a price of $68,000 will be approximately $145 million.
This balanced configuration implies that the market does not have a strong expectation for a clear price direction. However, both the bulls and bears have sufficient economic incentives to push the price in their favor before the expiry of the options (usually the bears have a stronger influence).
Here are two scenarios:
If the price of Bitcoin falls to $65,900, the put options will have a profit potential of $95 million.
On the contrary, if the price rises to $70,000 or higher, the call options will have a potential profit of up to $270 million.


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