Short-term holders of Bitcoin have realized a price increase to nearly $64,000, becoming a key support. Analyst Murphy pointed out that the chips in the $60,000 to $64,000 range have been exchanged in large quantities to the $66,000-68,000 range, forming a strong “moat,” and predicted that under no significant market turmoil, the lower limit of STH-RP will be difficult to break.
After the US non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations last Friday, Bitcoin dropped from nearly $72,000 to briefly spike at $68,300, with the largest drop exceeding 5% during the period. The price of Bitcoin continued to fluctuate around $69,300, but rose to $70,000 between 11 pm yesterday and 2 am today, but could not sustain the breakthrough. At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin fell back to $69,400, a slight decrease of 0.02% in the past 24 hours.
The Realized Price of STH is close to $64,000. The sideways fluctuation of Bitcoin seems to have a “supporting” force at play. Observing on-chain chips, the Realized Price (RP) of short-term holders (STH) continues to rise, with the STH Realized Price currently approaching $64,000, up 1.5% in the past week, indicating an increase in short-term speculative activities.
STH Realized Price is the average cost line of on-chain turnover of short-term holders (users with coin holding period less than 155 days, around the time of approval of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF in January), which is an indicator of the main support analyzed by chips. Therefore, as long as Bitcoin remains above $64,000 in the coming months, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin’s price will remain bullish as this price is an important support.
On-chain data analyst Murphy also recently pointed out that the realized price of long and short-term holders of Bitcoin has been exchanged in large quantities from $60,000-64,000 to $66,000-68,000. Murphy further indicated with URPD data that the main change in the on-chain structure in the past 20 days is the large turnover of chips in the $60,000-64,000 range to the $66,000-68,000 range, forming a stack of nearly 1.55 million BTC. This forms a thicker “moat” above STH-RP.
Murphy concluded, “I believe that based on the current data, unless there is a sudden external event severely impacting sentiment, this lower limit (referring to STH-RP) will not be easily broken.”
Note:
URPD stands for UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which reflects the price range corresponding to the last movement of circulating BTC. In simple terms, it is the price distribution of BTC on-chain chips. It is an advantageous indicator to analyze the current main cost, support, or resistance of chips, thereby judging the sentiment of the current market. Interested readers can refer to the introduction here.