Has TON Overplayed Its Hand Blockworks Market Overestimates Influence of Telegram Concealing Multiple Underlying Concerns

Blockworks Research released a report today cautioning that the recent surge in interest around TON and Telegram narratives may be overestimating their potential. While many see TON as the next SOL or ETH, the research unit argues that the market has overvalued Telegram’s distribution, TON’s programming language, and Telegram’s end-market challenges. Blockworks Research highlighted that Telegram’s global influence, often touted by bulls, might be exaggerated, with its daily active users (DAU) accounting for a mere 15% of monthly active users (MAU). This is significantly lower than other mainstream social applications like Facebook (69%), WeChat (53%), and Twitter/X (45%), indicating lower penetration and monetization capabilities than anticipated. Additionally, Blockworks Research noted challenges in TON’s ecosystem due to its lack of EVM compatibility and the adoption of the native blockchain programming language FunC. While TON’s growth narrative includes optimism about Telegram becoming the next WeChat, the report pointed out that WeChat has avoided competition in the US market, serving only the homogeneous Chinese market. Finally, Blockworks Research flagged risks associated with TON’s Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), which is 8.6 times its ecosystem DEX annual trading volume and 927 times its network annual expenses, significantly higher than median figures among a series of public chains.