Polymarket data shows a significant disparity in market predictions regarding Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching historical highs in 2024. Bitcoin is generally viewed favorably, while Ethereum faces lower market expectations.
(Background: CFTC targets election prediction platform Polymarket, may follow Taiwan’s lead to crack down on gamblers and shut down domains?)
According to the latest data from Polymarket, today (30th) the market predicts a 60% probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will set a historical high in 2024, with current betting amounts around $140,000. This prediction strongly reflects investor confidence in Bitcoin’s price performance in the coming year, especially in the context of changing macroeconomic factors following recent interest rate cuts in the United States. The condition for Bitcoin to reach a historical high in 2024 is to break $73,777 within this year according to Binance data.
In contrast, Polymarket’s data shows that Ethereum (ETH) has only a 16% chance of reaching a historical high in 2024, although the betting amount has reached $1.67 million. This outcome indicates that while investor confidence in a significant short-term increase for Ethereum is relatively weak, there is still substantial capital betting on its potential performance. The condition for Ethereum to hit a historical high in 2024 is to surpass $4,868 within this year based on Binance data.
Low Probability of Short-Term ETH/BTC Ratio Rebound
From the above market data, the probability of Bitcoin reaching a historical high is significantly higher than that of Ethereum, suggesting that the ETH/BTC ratio will struggle to rebound in the short term. This trend indicates that investors are more optimistic about Bitcoin’s performance in the coming months, while Ethereum may face more challenges, potentially leading to a short-term market sentiment of “strong Bitcoin, weak Ethereum” by the end of the year.
Since the beginning of 2024, the ETH/BTC ratio has exhibited a significant downward trend, sliding from a high of approximately 0.06 to the current level around 0.04, indicating a continued weakening of Ethereum’s value relative to Bitcoin, currently at 0.04062.
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