Bitcoin briefly surged past $93,000 last night, fueling market expectations of a year-end challenge to the $100,000 mark. From the perspective of the options market, the open interest (OI) of Bitcoin options expiring on December 27 stands at $11.8 billion, with call options significantly outweighing put options. If the Bitcoin price remains between $90,000 and $100,000 by then, the potential profit for bulls could reach as high as $4.45 billion.
(Background: Is $90,000 Not the Top? Glassnode: Bitcoin Profit-Taking Below Last Peak, Room for Further Gains Remains)
(Supplementary Information: Trump Nominates Bitcoin Advocate Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary, Pentagon to Implement BTC Strategy?)
The U.S. released CPI data in line with expectations yesterday (13), adding momentum to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin surged to $93,477.11 last night, gaining over $7,000 within the day. Although it has since retreated to around $90,000, investors are increasingly hopeful that Bitcoin will break through the $100,000 barrier before the end of the year.
**$11.8 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expiring on 12/27**
From the perspective of the options market, the OI of options contracts expiring on December 27 has reached $11.8 billion, with call options totaling $7.9 billion and put options at $3.92 billion. Assuming the OI remains unchanged, this substantial amount of capital could have a significant impact on the market at expiration.
Analyst Marcel Pechman analyzed the potential profit differentials of call and put options across various price ranges to assess the strength of market sentiment. He concluded that due to the significant excess of call OI over put OI, and given current data showing a bullish advantage, Bitcoin is likely to maintain upward momentum from the end of the year into early 2025.
Marcel Pechman set several possible price ranges based on Bitcoin’s current price trend:
– **If the Bitcoin price is between $72,000 and $75,000**: The total value of call options is $1.4 billion, while the total value of put options is $470 million, resulting in a potential profit differential of $930 million in favor of calls.
– **If the price is between $75,000 and $80,000**: The open interest value of call options is $1.85 billion, while put options are valued at $270 million, giving calls an advantage of $1.58 billion.
– **If the price is between $80,000 and $85,000**: The open interest value of call options reaches $2.74 billion, with put options at only $130 million, expanding the call advantage to $2.61 billion.
– **If the price is between $85,000 and $90,000**: The total value of call options is $3.38 billion, while put options are only $96 million, giving calls an advantage of $3.28 billion.
– **If the price is between $90,000 and $100,000**: The total value of call options climbs to $4.52 billion, with put options at only $74 million, resulting in a call advantage of $4.45 billion.
As the Bitcoin price rises, the potential profit for call options continues to increase, while the influence of put options gradually diminishes.
In summary, the logic of this analysis lies in observing the imbalance in OI of options contracts to infer market sentiment. If the price remains at a higher level, the bullish forces will gain more profit; to avoid this, the bearish side needs to push down the Bitcoin price.
**Polymarket Bets on Breakthrough Probability at 45%**
Additionally, Polymarket, the on-chain prediction market that accurately predicted Trump’s presidential win, shows that the market’s bet on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by November once exceeded 50% but has now fallen to 45%.
The market involves $689,000 in real funds, making it a valuable reference point.
