Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated today that quantum computing is still far from breaking Bitcoin encryption, but quantum computing will eventually be able to crack Bitcoin in “lost wallets” and make them circulate again, including the Bitcoin held in Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallet.
(Foreword: Bitcoin Godfather Adam Back: Quantum computing will not threaten BTC for decades, it is not difficult to create an anti-quantum attack network)
(Background: Physicists: Quantum computers will be able to crack Bitcoin private keys in five years, will BTC need to be completely shut down for an upgrade?)
The question of whether quantum computing will crack Bitcoin has sparked heated discussions in the Bitcoin community recently. Some technicians believe that Bitcoin’s encryption algorithm will be cracked by quantum computing in the near future, and hackers will be able to easily steal Bitcoin from people’s wallets. However, some experts believe that current quantum computing technology is not yet capable of posing a threat to Bitcoin.
Short-term quantum computing cannot threaten Bitcoin
Regarding quantum threats, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino shared his views today, believing that as quantum computing technology develops, lost Bitcoin wallets will eventually be cracked and re-enter the market circulation. However, this is still a distant future:
This is my prediction.
The distance between quantum computing and posing a substantial risk to Bitcoin encryption is still very far.
Before quantum computing poses a serious threat, Bitcoin will introduce addresses that are resistant to quantum attacks.
Everyone who is still alive and has access to their wallets will transfer their Bitcoin to new addresses resistant to quantum attacks.
But any Bitcoin stored in lost wallets (including Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin if he is no longer alive) will be cracked and re-circulated.
Prediction.
Quantum computing is still very far from any meaningful risk of breaking Bitcoin cryptography.
Quantum resistant addresses will eventually be added to Bitcoin before there is any serious threat.
All people alive (and that have access to their wallets) will move…
— Paolo Ardoino (@paoloardoino)February 8, 2025
Similar to Paolo Ardoino’s viewpoint, prominent venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya issued a warning in December last year, stating that quantum computing will pose a risk to first-generation encryption technology. The specific timing is still unclear, and this is not something that will happen in the short term. However, if he were a significant holder of Bitcoin, he would consider the possibility and prepare in advance.
Freezing the Bitcoin held by Satoshi Nakamoto?
However, if the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin becomes a reality, the 1 million Bitcoins held by Satoshi Nakamoto will be at risk. Emin Gün Sirer, the founder and CEO of Ava Labs, recently analyzed that the early P2PK format used by Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin may give attackers sufficient time to crack it in the future. To mitigate the risk, it is recommended that the Bitcoin community consider freezing the Bitcoin held by Satoshi Nakamoto.
P2PK is an early payment format for Bitcoin, characterized by the direct exposure of the public key. In traditional computing, it is almost impossible to derive the private key from the public key. However, the development of quantum computers may change this. Quantum computing can use the Shor algorithm to derive the private key from the public key and gain access to the Bitcoin within the corresponding address.
In contrast, the most common format for modern Bitcoin addresses is “Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash (P2PKH),” which only exposes the hashed public key and can relatively effectively resist quantum attacks. Therefore, early P2PK addresses are considered the most vulnerable part of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
