VanEck Digital Asset Research Director Matthew Sigel recently published an article, stating that according to Bloomberg’s legal analysts, the probability of the United States purchasing Bitcoin as a reserve asset this year is about 30%. However, he personally believes that the actual probability is closer to 50% to 60%.
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With Trump’s signing of an executive order on March 7 to establish a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” authorizing the Department of the Treasury and the Department of Commerce to purchase Bitcoin in a “budget-neutral” manner to avoid increasing taxpayer burden, the topic of whether the U.S. government will accumulate additional Bitcoin as part of its national reserve assets continues to be discussed.
Bloomberg: 30% Chance of U.S. Government Purchasing Bitcoin This Year
VanEck Digital Asset Research Director Matthew Sigel recently pointed out that, according to Bloomberg’s legal analysts, the likelihood of the U.S. federal government purchasing Bitcoin as a reserve asset in 2025 is about 30%. However, he personally believes that the actual likelihood is closer to 50% to 60%.
According to the content cited by Sigel, with Trump’s establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, coupled with the White House’s statement that it will not purchase new cryptocurrencies, Bloomberg analysts believe that there is little chance of change in reserve policies by 2025.
Bloomberg legal analyst says 30% chance Federal Government buys Bitcoin this year.
Says Trump won’t put political capital into passing legislation, because he could make it happen unilaterally if he wanted to via the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF).
pic.twitter.com/NnVhEfCR8m
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) March 21, 2025
Department of the Treasury Could Accumulate Bitcoin via Exchange Stabilization Fund
However, policy changes remain feasible. Bloomberg analysts pointed out that the Department of the Treasury could mobilize funds from the “Exchange Stabilization Fund” (ESF) to purchase new crypto assets. This fund is a sovereign asset fund managed by the U.S. Treasury and can be accessed without Congressional approval. Its original purpose was to intervene in foreign exchange and financial markets.
However, if the new funding mechanism requires Congressional approval, it is unlikely to be implemented within the next two years. Furthermore, despite Republican Florida Congressman Byron Donalds’ proposal to legalize Trump’s executive order, the general consensus is that this legislation is symbolic and has a low chance of passing.
As Trump already has the executive authority to push this forward, he is unlikely to use his political capital to push for legislation on this matter. Bloomberg’s legal analysts believe that the U.S. government’s momentum to actively enter the crypto market in 2025 will significantly slow down.
Polymarket Probability Surges to 71%
However, the market may not think so. According to data from the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, as of now, the market’s prediction probability of “whether the U.S. government will hold Bitcoin reserves at any point in 2025” has risen to 71%.
It is worth noting that the market’s rules are quite clear: the prediction only counts if the U.S. government “actively holds” Bitcoin. If Bitcoin is seized by law enforcement, it does not count toward the prediction. Currently, more than $2 million is involved in the market, which provides some reference value.
Although the specific strategy for “budget neutrality” remains unclear, the market has already taken a stance. As Polymarket’s prediction probability rises to 71%, it indicates that investor expectations for the U.S. government holding Bitcoin reserves in the future are gradually increasing.
