Bloomberg Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone Tweets on Bitcoin and Gold
Bloomberg commodity strategist Mike McGlone tweeted that historical data suggests the current ratio of Bitcoin to gold indicates a potential significant correction in Bitcoin prices in the future. He pointed out that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is expected to peak at 40 times in 2024. Meanwhile, the ratio of total market capitalization of the U.S. stock market to GDP has also reached 2.2 times, similar to historical highs in the U.S. during 1929 (the Wall Street Crash) and 1999 (the dot-com bubble), implying that the current market may be overvalued.
(Background: ETH exchange supply hits a 10-year low, Bitfinex Bitcoin long positions reach a 6-month high, is a rebound coming?)
(Background Supplement: Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin may have bottomed at $77,000, but the U.S. stock market needs to continue falling to force Powell to print money… better hold cash.)
Concerns Over Economic Recession Prompt Investors to Shift to Safe-Haven Assets
Following the inauguration of new U.S. President Trump, a series of economic policies raised market concerns about an impending economic recession. Against this backdrop, many investors have moved their funds into safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries. Previously, Bitcoin, known as “digital gold,” reached an all-time high of $109,382 on Inauguration Day (January 20) under Trump’s support.
Although the current Bitcoin price has declined along with U.S. stocks, reporting at $86,567, many analysts believe that after bottoming at $77,000 in mid-March, Bitcoin is expected to continue its recovery, aiming for $100,000.
Further Reading: Arthur Hayes: I Bet Bitcoin Will Rise to $110,000 Before Correcting to $76,000, Fed Slows Tapering Like a De Facto QE
Bloomberg Analyst: Bitcoin May Face Major Correction
Yesterday, Bloomberg commodity strategist Mike McGlone tweeted that historical data suggests the current Bitcoin-to-gold ratio indicates a potential significant correction in Bitcoin prices:
Did Bitcoin Peak vs. Gold? The Ratio May Suggest a Great Reset – The mantra that hope is not a good investment strategy could be playing out in the decline in the number of gold ounces that’s equal to a Bitcoin. History may judge 2024’s 40x peak in the ratio and 2.2x in US…pic.twitter.com/q0I4mUu8p5
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) March 24, 2025
According to TradingView data, the current BTC/XAU (gold) ratio is approximately 28.74, having declined nearly 30% from last December’s peak.
Gold Expected to Surge to $3,500 in Q3, Bitcoin Retracing to $65,000?
According to previous reports, analysts from Macquarie Group estimate that the safe-haven appeal of gold will continue to strengthen, with spot gold expected to soar to $3,500 per ounce in the third quarter of this year. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price target to $3,100 per ounce last month.
Cointelegraph analyzed that the current trends of Bitcoin and gold align with historical patterns, particularly the bearish divergence (BTC/XAU) from March 2021 to March 2022, characterized by rising prices contrasted with a declining Relative Strength Index (RSI). This pattern indicates that upward momentum is weakening. The BTC/XAU initially fell to the 50-2W Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support level, ultimately crashing by 60%, coinciding with Bitcoin’s 68% drop.
Currently, the BTC/XAU has completed two EMA retests, and with the RSI showing bearish divergence, momentum appears to be weakening, increasing the likelihood of further declines, especially if the ratio decisively breaks below the 50-2W EMA support level (~26 XAU, currently at 28.74). $65,000 may become the next potential downside target for Bitcoin, suggesting a decline of about 40% from the historical high of $110,000.
However, analysts at Nansen believe that this decline is a “pullback in a bull market,” and if the 50-2W EMA holds as support, the likelihood of a bull market recovery will increase. Conversely, if it falls below the EMA, Bitcoin may enter a bear market. If the BTC/XAU bearish divergence repeats, it could drag Bitcoin’s downside target for 2025 down to the 200-2W EMA support level of $34,850.
