ARK Invest Raises Bitcoin 2030 Bull Market Price Prediction to $2.4 Million
ARK Invest has raised its Bitcoin bull market price prediction for 2030 to $2.4 million, based on an analysis of multiple capital accumulation sources such as institutional investment, emerging market demand, and digital gold, while considering the impact of active supply, indicating a more critical role for Bitcoin in financial asset allocation.
(Previous Context: ARK Cathie Wood: Meme coins will eventually be “worthless,” only to realize the pain after losses! Bitcoin is projected to reach $1.5 million by 2030.)
(Background Supplement: ARK Cathie Wood: The market is about to hit bottom, and the Fed will inject liquidity into a “deflationary boom” in the second half of the year.)
Long-term Optimism for Bitcoin Development
In the latest report released yesterday (the 24th), ARK Invest, an asset management company that has maintained a long-term optimistic view on Bitcoin’s development, has raised its Bitcoin bull market price prediction for 2030 to $2.4 million, further upgrading its optimistic outlook on the long-term adoption trend of Bitcoin.
This forecast is based on an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s potential market size (TAM) and penetration rate, considering the impact of various capital accumulation sources.
2030 Bull Market Target Price Reaches $2.4 Million
According to ARK Invest’s report, the updated Bitcoin price predictions are as follows:
- Bearish Scenario: $500,000, CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of approximately 32%
- Base Scenario: $1.2 million, CAGR of approximately 53%
- Optimistic Scenario: $2.4 million, CAGR of approximately 72%
Model Basis: Six Major Sources of Capital Accumulation
ARK’s forecasting model considers the following six major sources of capital accumulation:
- Institutional Investment: It is expected that by 2030, institutional investors will allocate 6.5% of their assets to Bitcoin, nearly double the current allocation for gold.
- Digital Gold: Bitcoin, as a more flexible and transparent store of value, is expected to capture about 60% of the gold market’s market capitalization, contributing over one-third to the bull market forecast.
- Emerging Market Demand: Under inflation and currency devaluation risks, emerging market investors seek hedge assets, with Bitcoin’s penetration rate in such markets expected to reach 6%.
- National Reserves: As more countries emulate the United States by incorporating Bitcoin into their strategic reserves, this trend will further drive demand.
- Corporate Financial Allocation: An increasing number of companies are incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets to diversify their fiat cash reserves.
- On-chain Financial Services: Bitcoin’s applications in decentralized finance (DeFi) are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% to 60%, becoming an important source of capital accumulation.
From the chart below, ARK Invest believes that “institutional investment” is the largest driving force of the bull market scenario, accounting for as much as 43.4%; while digital gold dominates in both bearish and base scenarios, accounting for 57.8% and 48.6%, respectively.
Supply Adjustment: The Impact of Active Supply
ARK’s analysis particularly emphasizes Bitcoin’s active supply (the denominator of the formula below), which excludes long-term unused or lost Bitcoins. This adjustment indicates that the actual number of Bitcoins in circulation is less than the total supply, further reinforcing Bitcoin’s scarcity and creating upward pressure on its price.
Implications: BTC Asset Status Evolves Again
Compared to its early 2025 version of the forecast (with a bull market looking at about $1.5 million), this adjustment shows that ARK Invest believes BTC will play a more critical role in global financial asset allocation.
With the increase of institutional investors, national reserves, and corporate financial allocations, Bitcoin is gradually transforming from a fringe asset into a mainstream investment option. Additionally, the development of decentralized finance provides new application scenarios for Bitcoin, further broadening its market potential.
However, such long-term predictions still carry a high degree of variability. The global macroeconomic environment, interest rate policies, liquidity tightening, and even the advent of quantum computing may suppress the willingness and ability to invest capital in Bitcoin, thereby affecting its actual penetration rate and price performance. Despite its vast potential, Bitcoin remains deeply influenced by market cycles and technology, and investors must carefully assess and remain alert to potential changes.
