Bitcoin’s fourth halving is only 106 days away, and besides focusing on the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, analysts like Ali Martinez suggest that the halving is also worth paying attention to as it has historically led to price increases of 400% to 6,000%.
According to Bitcoin Block Half data, the cryptocurrency market in the first half of 2024 is not only focused on the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF. As of the deadline, there are only 106 days left until Bitcoin’s fourth halving. Although the halving typically does not immediately trigger a price increase in Bitcoin, it takes several months to a year and a half to ferment. However, analyst Ali Martinez believes that it is worth considering the bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Halving Countdown
Analyst: Historical increase of 400%-6,000%
Every 210,000 blocks, approximately every four years, the block reward received by miners is halved, resulting in a 50% decrease in miner revenue, known as “halving.” The estimated time for the fourth halving is around April 22, 2024, when the Bitcoin block reward will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Analyst Martinez points out in his analysis that historical data shows that Bitcoin’s halving narrative has always led to significant price increases. It has become a consensus in the market. He states that after the first halving, Bitcoin’s price experienced a 6,000% increase within a year. After the second and third halvings, the price increase within a year was approximately 400%.
Bankless: Diminished Impact from Halving
Can the market expect a price increase of over 400% for Bitcoin in mid-April? Bankless analyst Jack Inabinet mentioned in his analysis “Where Bitcoin Goes Next” released on January 3 that although Bitcoin’s halving has historically brought a bullish trend, it does not necessarily mean that future halvings will lead to price increases.
He gives the example of Ethereum, which saw a decrease in issuance after the merge but did not drive price increases in the following months (the ETH/BTC ratio has fallen by over 30% since then). The decrease in issuance caused by this Bitcoin halving may not guarantee a positive impact on the price compared to previous halvings.
While reducing selling pressure by reducing block rewards will undoubtedly have a bullish impact on Bitcoin’s price, the impact of this halving may be significantly weakened compared to previous ones. If the expected price increase pattern after the Bitcoin halving does not occur, investors in the market should not be surprised.