Standard Chartered Bank predicts in a report on the 8th that after gaining approval for a Bitcoin spot ETF, it may attract investments of up to $50 to $100 billion, significantly driving up the price of Bitcoin to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
The fate of a Bitcoin spot ETF reached a critical point this week, and the market has been discussing whether its approval will bring in a large influx of funds, further boosting the price of Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered Bank predicts in its report to investors on the 8th that after gaining approval for a Bitcoin spot ETF, it may attract investments of up to $50 to $100 billion, thereby driving up the price of Bitcoin to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Comparing with Gold ETPs for prediction
Standard Chartered Bank uses Gold ETPs (ETPs are broadly defined exchange-traded products, including ETFs, ETNs, etc.) as a benchmark to estimate the potential influx of funds and its potential impact on the price of Bitcoin spot ETF. They reviewed the market performance after the first launch of Gold ETPs in 2004 and noted that the price of gold increased by about 4.3 times in the following seven to eight years.
Based on this comparison, Standard Chartered Bank expects that Bitcoin will also experience a similar upward trend in price after the approval of a spot ETF. However, the bank believes that the Bitcoin ETF market will develop faster than the Gold ETP market, thereby potentially achieving significant appreciation in a shorter period of time (about one to two years).
According to the bank’s prediction, by the end of 2024, the Bitcoin spot ETF listed in the United States may hold approximately 437,000 to 1.32 million Bitcoins, corresponding to an injection of $50 to $100 billion. The report stated:
Standard Chartered Bank further supplemented that this prediction is consistent with its previous estimate that Bitcoin may reach $100,000 by the end of 2024, which was based on the expected impact of the approval of a spot ETF and the Bitcoin halving event.
However, Bloomberg’s Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone expressed skepticism about the price trend of Bitcoin after the potential approval of an ETF in a discussion on Macro Monday with host Scott Melker on the 8th.
McGlone proposed that high-risk assets usually face pressure for a correction, and Bitcoin is one such asset. He said:
Regarding the future trend of Bitcoin, McGlone maintains a cautious attitude. He pointed out:
These remarks imply that the current market optimism may be excessive, and investors should remain cautious at this stage.